Dystopia or Utopia? - Part 2: The Fork

So yesterday I proposed that we are fast approaching a point where a significant amount of the economy will be automated making jobs largely a thing of the past, and that the signs of this can already be seen. So what happens then?

Before we can explore that I want to dig into something I mentioned in passing last week. Virtual reality (VR). We are just now hitting the point where virtual reality is reaching the level of technological refinement that it is both affordable and enjoyable. In the time frame we are talking about, say 20-30 years in the future, VR will have become THE medium for entertainment and media. Non VR entertainment will exist I'm sure, but VR will be considered the pinnacle. Not only that but it will be incredibly immersive even by today's standards and will probably not cost much more than it does now if not a bit less $600 (Oculus Rift).

I believe this is important on a much deeper level than simply an example or showing technological progress. Truly immersive VR promises to shift the balance of economics in a fundamental way. The digital world is limitless. If I write a piece of software I can make unlimited copies of it and theoretically give it to every single person on earth without increasing my production costs at all. That was a huge shift that brought about what we see today as the internet age. With VR you are taking a person and putting them into a digital world. And with high level immersive VR you are putting them into a digital world that they may very well be happy to stay in a significant amount of the time. A world where they can have any digital belongings they could want. Any identity they want. Anybody they want. All at effectively zero economic cost.

This would be the final disassociation between supply and demand. Economics does not work here.

What would this look like? It would mean a significant percentage of the population would not need to work, and quite possibly couldn't even if they wanted to. However, given the high level of automation we would not need them to. They would be free to plug in to the VR world of their choosing and live whatever VR life they wanted to. As long as they had basic food, shelter, and an internet connection they could and many would be happy enough to stay there.

Here is where the fork enters. Is this, as described a utopia or a dystopia? Partly it depends on your perspective and partly it depends on what happens next. Unfortunately I am not sure that we can predict that outcome. Even if I am 100% right that this happens the next part is unpredictable I think. It could be a close parallel to internet use today, or it could be some kind of emergent effect that only makes sense when you look back at it and maybe not even then.

The freedom it would give would be amazing. It would unleash human creativity beyond even what the dawn of the internet brought about. Freed of economic concerns we could focus on creating beautiful and amazing things. We could connect with the world and each other more intimately than this physical world could ever allow.

However, it could be the most draconian dystopia imaginable. Constant control and surveillance. Ultimate suppression of all dissent and unauthorized thought and activity. Every part of every action you take could be observed and evaluated.

It really comes down to how we implement it. Because I don't think it is a question of if, but of when and how.